Financial Model Design is one of the most important components of Business- and Strategic Planning. A Financial (Projections) Model has become the standard financial-decision making tools used by entrepreneurs, financial analysts, investors, business executives, banks and other stakeholders. Financial Model Design takes time, effort and industry-know-how and uses a rational way of looking at things free from emotion and personal attachment.
So, let us review the different things you need to remember when it comes to Financial Model Design:
Financial Model Design – Principle 1:
Starting a New Business:Whenever building something new, there are risks involved. One way to reduce the risks is to do some solid planning and (really) think the business concept through. For Startups, this means especially preparing a financial plan as funds are tight and there are many questions which need to be answered: How much funding will be needed, when will we achieve break-even, how can we monetise our platform, etc. So building a financial model can become a valuable planning tool for Startups.
Financial Model Design – Principle 2:
Raising Funding from Investors:One of the triggers why afinancial model is prepared relates to fundraising. Many Startups will have to consider the option of raising equity financing from investors such as Business Angels or Venture Capitalists. Investors are very critical people as their money is on the line. They will want to make a careful investment decision. Therefore, they normally will want to thoroughly review the investment case, understand the risks and upside potential before agreeing to inject money. This will require the business’ management team to prepare a detailed and well substantiated financial plan which is credible enough to convince capital providers to go ahead with the contemplated investment. Normally, the required calculations will require many details to be considered, therefore a financial model in form of a spreadsheet model will be needed.
Financial Model Design – Principle 3:
Valuing a Business:Another reason is to value a business. The most famous example is theDiscounted Cash Flow (DCF) Method;a forward looking valuation method of the Income Approach. Future free cash flows are discounted to theirpresent values by taking into account the risk and opportunity costs by using an appropriate discount rate. A DCF model requires at least a 5 year business plan. To prepare the requiredfinancial plan, normally a detailed financial model spreadsheet in Excelis needed to perform the required calculations. As the financial plan is highly subjective, it is very important provide transparency about the assumptions, calculations and valuation method used. The best way to do this is tobuild a financial model in Excel.
Financial Model Design – Principle 4:
Evaluating a New Investment:Here we change the perspective from a company’s management or owners to an investor’s or buyer’s point of view. The buyer might be less interested in the valuation output, what he needs to understand are the returns, the risks involved and the upside of the proposed investment. This normally requires to focus the analysis on the Internal Rate of Returnrather than theNet Present Value. IRR analysis typically either requires the calculation of thecash flows available to equity shareholders or a cash-in/cash-out consideration based on the investment amount, dividends, change in shareholder loans and associated interest and pro-rate stake in the exit value. In order to understand the investment proposition, investors will build their own financial model as they want to exactly see how the projected profits and cash flows are calculated. They also might want to play around with the model to understand certain scenarios such as worst case and best case scenario. Lastly, they might also want to compare the investment with past similar investment cases or current second best alternatives.
Financial Model Design – Principle 5:
Making Informed Financial Decisions:Financial decisions decide over the allocation of funds. Every decision will have financial consequences, and can either lead to a loss or a gain. Therefore, it is fully rationale to carefully think about every decision and run the required calculations. A solid analysis will require a financialmodel as basis for decision-making.Financial modelsare used to substantiate and justify financial decisions rationally and transparently. They provide a tool to quantify which scenario offers the highest financial benefit to shareholders (or stakeholders).
Financial Model Design – Principle 6:
Financial Analysisand Understanding a Business: Developing a financial model helps to analyse a business in a rationale and data-driven manner. Preparing a financial modelallows the easy calculation of financial ratios since the calculations in the spreadsheet can be linked dynamically to the underlying accounts. Performing thorough financial analysis can identify problems with the business, offer new insights and allow a better understanding of the business. Whenever there is something strange with a company’sfinancials or not understood, having a solid financial modelas analytical framework can offer tremendous help in finding the problem and solution.
Financial Model Design – Principle 7:
Business Planning: A business plan analyses the market, competitors, the Unique Selling Proposition, Strategy, products, and describes the plan going forward. A business plan will become more credible when properly quantified in form of a financial plan. Business plans many times are developed or requested in order to become more clear or agree among the management team how the plan going forward has to look like. A financial model quantifies the businessplan in number and comes up with the corresponding financialprojections over the next 5 years or more. Afinancial model, therefore, lies at the heart of any good and meaningful business plan and goes beyond a pure next year’s budget.Many times, the term “Business Plan” actually refers to the 5-yearfinancial projections.
Financial Model Design – Principle 8:
Turnaround and Restructuring Scenarios:In the case of a Turnaround or Restructuring situation, a new business plan will be required including the quantifications in form of a financial plan. Entering into a restructuring is an important decision and in order to maximize the chances of success a solid strategy and some thorough planning will be needed. In many cases, a restructuring will require theallocation of capital. Therefore, afinancial modelas basis for such decisions is needed to justify the decision towards the board or shareholders.
Financial Model Design – Principle 9:
Bank Financing: Established business very often will have to raise funding from banks for their investment or business expansion projects. Apart from collateral, banks typically focus on specific financial ratios which are important to meet their lending criteria. Normally, these are Debt/EBITDA ratios, Debt/Equity ratio, and debt service coverage ratios. Afinancial modelcan model the expected financial ratios and their change when assuming a different business scenario.
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I am a seasoned financial expert with a wealth of experience in financial modeling, strategic planning, and business analysis. Having worked extensively in various roles such as financial analyst and business consultant, I bring a deep understanding of the intricacies involved in designing comprehensive financial models. My expertise extends to catering to the needs of entrepreneurs, investors, business executives, and other stakeholders who rely on financial models for informed decision-making.
Now, let's delve into the concepts outlined in the article about Financial Model Design:
Financial Model Design – Principle 1: Starting a New Business
When initiating a new business, the inherent risks can be mitigated through thorough planning. Startups, with limited funds, benefit significantly from crafting a financial plan. Key questions, such as funding requirements, break-even timelines, and monetization strategies, can be addressed through a well-designed financial model.
Financial Model Design – Principle 2: Raising Funding from Investors
For startups seeking equity financing, a meticulously prepared financial model becomes indispensable. Investors scrutinize detailed financial plans to assess risks and potential returns. The use of a spreadsheet model is common, aiding in presenting a credible investment case that convinces capital providers.
Financial Model Design – Principle 3: Valuing a Business
Valuing a business, often done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method, requires a comprehensive financial plan spanning at least five years. Transparency in assumptions, calculations, and valuation methods is crucial. Excel-based financial models play a vital role in performing the necessary calculations.
Financial Model Design – Principle 4: Evaluating a New Investment
Investors, when evaluating new opportunities, focus on Internal Rate of Return (IRR) analysis. This necessitates detailed financial models to understand projected profits, cash flows, and various scenarios. Comparisons with past investments or alternatives are common practices.
Financial Model Design – Principle 5: Making Informed Financial Decisions
Financial decisions impact fund allocation and can lead to gains or losses. Rational decision-making involves careful consideration and calculations. Financial models serve as a basis for substantiating and justifying decisions transparently, helping stakeholders identify the most beneficial scenarios.
Financial Model Design – Principle 6: Financial Analysis and Understanding a Business
Developing a financial model facilitates a data-driven analysis of a business. Dynamic linking of calculations to underlying accounts allows easy calculation of financial ratios. Thorough financial analysis aids in identifying issues, gaining insights, and understanding the intricacies of a business.
Financial Model Design – Principle 7: Business Planning
A business plan gains credibility when quantified in the form of a financial plan. Financial models, projecting over the next five years or more, lie at the heart of meaningful business plans. They go beyond mere budgeting and contribute to a clearer understanding of the strategic path forward.
Financial Model Design – Principle 8: Turnaround and Restructuring Scenarios
In turnaround or restructuring situations, a new business plan with quantifications in the form of a financial plan is crucial. Solid strategies and thorough planning, justified through financial models, are essential for board and shareholder approval.
Financial Model Design – Principle 9: Bank Financing
Established businesses seeking funding from banks must adhere to specific financial ratios. Debt/EBITDA ratios, Debt/Equity ratio, and debt service coverage ratios are vital considerations. Financial models play a key role in modeling expected ratios and their variations under different business scenarios.
In conclusion, the importance of financial models spans across diverse scenarios, from startups planning their journey to established businesses seeking investments or restructuring. These principles underscore the critical role of financial modeling in informed decision-making and strategic planning.
